Impacts of renewable portfolio standard on carbon emission peaking and tradable green certificate market: A system dynamics analysis method

With the announcement of carbon peaking and neutrality target in China as well launch nationwide green power renewable generation trading, one key issues is how to design an effective portfolio standard (RPS) build efficient tradable certificate (TGC) market. The quota that stipulates share electricity supplied from qualified energy (RE) sources has substantial impacts on TGC market, occurred time emission peaking. However, few studies have been reported effectively quantifying variation. Given this background, paper presents innovative system dynamics (SD) model evaluate variation trading results market trend emissions for next decade. proposed SD takes factors such accommodating capability by RE generation, policy-driven reduction decreasing fixed feed-in tariff (FIT) constraints first time. These are quantified based current policies mechanism improve evaluation accuracy model. Using real-world data, simulations under various scenarios carried out validate feasibility efficiency methods further improving also explored, which expected guide achieve target.